Takeaways from the local elections
My latest for Krytyka Polityczna
This week’s newsletter is a lightly adapted version of a column I wrote for the political and cultural magazine Krytyka Polityczna. I drafted the piece on 5 October as a snap response to the results and it was published in Polish here. This version, which the editors have kindly allowed me to share, is updated to take into account the latest developments, which saw the PD and M5S consolidate their victories in the second round run-offs. I’ll be back next Thursday with the usual format, but in the meantime I hope the following will provide some antidote to the general pessimism and resignation that has so afflicted Italian politics in recent years.
Local elections in Italy: an opening for the left?
It’s easy to disregard small-scale contests as niche, with little national relevance. The ballot on 3-4 October, though, shows there is a real chance for the PD, and those to its left, to regroup.
It was supposed to be a triumph for Matteo Salvini and Georgia Meloni; a consolidation of the centre right alliance that would cement their rise to power. It was supposed to be a humiliation for the PD and the hammer-blow that would bring down Mario Draghi’s government. In the end, though, these pessimistic prophecies proved fallacious.
On the weekend of 3-4 October Italians went to the polls to vote in 1349 mayoral elections, and the regional presidency of Calabria. The results were not at all what had been predicted. Far from setting the ground for a neo-fascist takeover, voters resisted the so-called populist turn. Participation was the lowest in over a decade – at 54% – and there was little to get excited about, but neither did toxic racist-nationalist energies dominate to the degree they have in recent years.
Generally speaking, apathy and resignation are considered to be signs of a weak democracy. That’s certainly the case in Italy today. Still, there are some important trends to note in these results which help cast light on a) how Covid has impacted on the political sphere, and b) where progressive democrats might find cause for hope.
I: The left has gained ground in (most of) the major cities
In Milan, the pro-European Green candidate Beppe Sala won outright with 57.7%. In Bologna Matteo Lepore, a socialist, obtained 61.9%. In Naples, a Five Star Movement-PD list came in at 62.9%, (leaving the right on just 21%). In Turin the left stalled at 43.9% but they nevertheless look set to win the city in a second round of voting. In Rome, where the centre right secured 30% and the centre left 27%, which means there will also be a run-off, victory is still within reach. If the communists, socialists and other radicals shift to support the moderate Roberto Gualtieri, which thankfully it looks like they will, the chances are good. All these cities are important linchpins. Winning the capital, though, would really be a game-changer [update: 20 October. Rome and Turin were indeed both won by the centre-left].
II: The provinces are not exclusively right-wing
Italian journalists - like journalists in most countries - can tend towards metropolitan snobbery. It’s all too common to read crass assumptions about rural voters being intrinsically bigoted, backward and conservative. It’s true that the Lega and co have solid support in smaller cities – like Novara or Latina – but that’s hardly the case across the board. In Siena, for example, where far right activists have really been concentrating their efforts, the PD came out on top. The left also won decisive victories in provincial centres like Rimini, Ravenna and Assisi. Not only this, the ageing populations of medieval hilltop villages across central Italy, which should have been expected to support the right, actually demonstrated themselves quite open to the progressive coalitions. If the left was to put more energies into some of these areas, they could gain even further ground.
III: Veneto is a basket case (and the absence of a green agenda is costing lives)
There is, however, one exception to this trend: the north east. Of the 10 major towns in Veneto, the right-wing lists won every single contest. In several impoverished industrial communities, like Albignasego and Cittadella, far-right candidates won as much as 79%. This is really worrying as it suggests that neo-fascism is on the road to more long-term institutionalisation. If progressives are to make headway in this region they will have to focus on one area above all: credible economics for a sustainable, green transition. This area is one of the most polluted in Italy, with PFAS in the water table far beyond safe levels, and PM10 toxifying the air. People are dying, and yet the right continues to deflecting the blame for all social ills onto migrants and the EU. Activism and education are urgently needed to outflank them.
IV: Italian politics is still - very much - a man’s game
Independently of the left-right paradigm for a moment, there’s no escaping the poor gender representation, and representativeness, in these elections. Of the 145 candidates that participated in the largest municipal contests, only 25 were women. That’s 17.24%. It’s striking, too, that the most prominent female voices on the campaign trail were all associated with the right: namely Georgia Meloni, head of Fratelli d’Italia, Virginia Raggi, a right leaning M5S candidate, and Rachele Mussolini (who courted media attention largely by exploiting her surname). The Italian left has some formidable female politicians in its ranks – look, for example, at Elly Schlein, the 34-year-old Vice President of Emilia Romagna. Yet these individuals, who are deeply embedded in grassroots movements, and who advocate a feminist programme, are often kept to the sidelines in shaping national debates. This is an ethical failure, obviously, but it’s a strategic one too.
V: The south is an anomalous, chaotic, opportunity
Southern voters are another electoral category the left has neglected in recent years. The forces of church and mafia have, for too long, hampered progressive organisation here and there are few willing to stand against their combined power. For a brief moment the Five Star Movement, with its anomalous breed of liberal populism, seemed to offer an alternative, but those days have now passed. In 2021 Calabria reverted to its traditionalist ways. The new president, who won 54.46%, is Roberto Occhiuto, a right wing former Christian Democrat. Luigi De Magistris, on the other hand, an environmentalist, anti-mafia campaigner and key figure in the world of progressive social movements, obtained just 16.7%
Elsewhere in the south, however, the left is actually growing in influence. Leaving aside Naples – which was indeed a great victory –PD affiliated parties made ground in Salerno, which they won confidently, as well as in small towns across Campania. More interestingly, increasing numbers of one-time Five Star supporters are now moving to the left in cities where there is little to no history of communist or socialist organising: Gallipoli in Puglia is one such case in point. These are key swing voters. And the result should give local groups, and small parties like Sinistra Italiana and Liberi e Uguali confidence that their grassroots campaigns really are making a difference.